SADC’s agricultural trade under a cloud of changing climate

Lazarus Sauti

Agriculture is considered to be one of the most vulnerable sectors to the adverse effects of climate change in Southern African Development Community (SADC).

Negative effects of climate change on agriculture, caused by land degradation, water shortages and crop failures, affect the economies of member-states more severely as a large share of people in the region depend on agricultural incomes for living.

Further, climate change in the form of temperature increase tends to reduce agricultural output as the crops speed through their development and bring about less grain in the process.

Development practitioner, Paddington Ngadze, says for southern Africa, climate change is of highest economic importance as a high ratio of the population is employed in the agricultural sector, which contributes in the different member states between 4 percent and 27 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

“70 percent of people in southern Africa depend on agriculture for food, income and employment and the sector also contributes in the different member states between 4 percent and 27 percent of GDP.

“Such dependence renders agricultural trade and hence economic conditions more vulnerable,” he said.

Remember, he adds, the sector is also a major source of exports in several southern African countries, contributing on average about 13 percent to total export earnings and about 66 percent to the value of intra-regional trade; any changes, caused by climate change will negatively affects export earnings and regional trade.

Economic commentator, Francis Mukora, adds that changes in weather patterns, which are devastating crops in southern Africa, could tip the region’s economy into recession.

“Agriculture not only employs more people, especially youth in southern Africa, but contributed close over 20 percent to economic output and a major farming contraction quickly turns slow growth into recession,” he said, adding that this could push up the jobless rate and widen the gap between the rich and poor.

Mukora also said Zimbabwe, for instance, is forecasting to grow its economy by 2.7 percent this year on the back of modest growth from the agriculture sector, but the growth is ‘unrealistic’ due to impending El Nino effects on the region.

Peace Sibanda, an environmentalist, weighs in, stating that agricultural trade is one of the most vulnerable economic activities that is expected to be affected by climate change, especially in the SADC.

“Although the impact of climate change on export earnings and regional trade is not clear, one thing for sure is that climate change will have effect on prices. Due to changing weather conditions, the price of imports will definitely be affected directly and indirectly,” he said.

However, Sibanda says although the region is under a climate change blockage, the region can expand its agricultural trade and lift citizens out of poverty.

“Southern Africa is under a climate change siege, no doubt, but the region can expand its trade only if member-states utilise their ecosystems to fight the scourge,” he said.

“This means that resilent ecosystems are required to promote the wise use of biodiversity, and such wise use will preserve the natural environment from degradation and ensure that it remains productive and continues to contribute to economic expansion.

The Paris Climate Change agreement, signed in December 2015, recognised that “climate change represents an urgent and potentially irreversible threat to human societies and the planet and thus requires the widest possible cooperation by all countries.”

This pushed Dr Richard Munang, UNEP’s Africa regional climate change coordinator and Jesica Andrews, an ecosystems adaptation officer with UNEP’s regional office for Africa, to urge industries and stakeholders in the agriculture sector within the SADC region to cooperate and deal with climate change issues affecting agriculture and halting trade.

“Political and business leaders as well as key stakeholders in agriculture and environmental management need to join hands and open trade regimes for food and agriculture so as to contribute to adaptation and mitigation efforts.

Paul Nyoni, an economist and policy analyst, concurs.

“Climate change is affecting agriculture and agricultural trade in southern Africa, but an open trade regime can contribute to mitigation and adaptation efforts. At a most basic level, trade of food and agricultural products will be required to offset both climate- induced changes in agricultural production as well as shortages due to sudden climatic events.

“Moreover, an undistorted trading system will level the international playing field and facilitate increased investment in the agricultural sectors of SADC countries, many of which have suffered from decades of neglect,” he said, adding that increased trade opportunities for poor countries, still heavily dependent on their agricultural sectors, will surely increase economic growth.

Nyoni added regional leaders, players in the agriculture and environment sector and development partners should push for an open trade regime that greatly improves access to inputs, which can trigger dramatic productivity increases on existing agricultural land and restore degraded lands, thus taking pressure off forests.